Iran launched a massive aerial attack on Israel on Saturday, deploying over 100 drones and air-defense missiles.
According to Max Abrahms, an associate professor of political science at Northeastern University, Iran’s actions might be seen as a “declaration of war” with far-reaching consequences for Middle Eastern conflicts.
The strike, which comes six months after Hamas struck Israel, appears to be a reprisal to Israel’s attack on an Iranian facility in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month. The US claims to have shot down an unspecified number of the drones used in the attack.
“Iran has essentially declared war against Israel, and Israel is going to respond in a substantial way,” Abrahms said.
According to Abrahms, Iran and Israel have been adversaries since the Iranian revolution in 1979. But what distinguishes Saturday’s strike is that it was launched straight from Iran.
“Israel and Iran have been waging a low-grade war against each other in the shadows,” Abrahms said. “Iran has historically used its proxy groups to attack Israel from Yemen, Lebanon and even Palestinian territories with groups like Hamas, which are supported by Iran.”
Saturday’s incident comes only weeks after Israeli airplanes smashed into the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, killing three top Iranian officers on April 1.
According to Abrahms, Iran’s response to the strike has exacerbated the issue.
“Israel attacked some terrorists outside of Iran, and Iran has responded apparently by firing hundreds of drones and missiles into Israel,” he said.
It’s difficult to anticipate how much damage Iran’s strike would produce, but Abrahms thinks Israel could certainly respond.
“Projectiles could do an unknowable amount of damage inside of Israel,” he said. “It’s possible Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will respond by targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
The Biden administration has promised to defend Israel against the strike, and in recent days has expanded military aid in preparation of Iran’s onslaught. In a statement to the New York Times on Saturday night, a US Department of Defense official reaffirmed the US’s support for Israel.
“In accordance with our ironclad commitment to Israel’s security, U.S. forces in the region continue to shoot down Iranian-launched drones targeting Israel,” the statement goes on to read. “Our forces remain postured to provide additional defensive support and to protect U.S. forces operating in the region.”
Abrahms adds that the strike might have “international implications for the United States,” as well as regional consequences in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.
“There are simultaneous attacks by Iran’s proxies from Yemen, from Lebanon,” he said. “So yes, this is a major matter. “We are in uncharted waters here.”
Iran’s strikes on Israel came six months after the Israel-Hamas War began, with Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist group, launching a cross-border offensive on Israel on October 7. In response, Israel has launched a fierce assault against Hamas, deploying bombs and other large-scale military operations on the Gaza Strip in the name of annihilating the organization.
According to Abrahms, Iran may have conducted a strike against Israel on Saturday due to its vulnerability and retaliation to the October 7 incident.
“Israel has lost some international prestige from its response to the Hamas’ terrorist attack on Oct. 7,” Abrahms said. “So, the Iranian leadership concluded that this is a propitious time to wage war against Israel.”
Iqra Khan