CALIFORNIA, September 30, 2026 — Communities along California’s coast are preparing for the arrival of a large Kelvin wave, an ocean phenomenon associated with the unusually strong El Niño developing in the Pacific. Scientists say the event could temporarily raise coastal sea levels by as much as one foot (30cm) and increase the risk of flooding and erosion.
Kelvin Wave Approaches California Coast
The Kelvin wave is currently moving toward Southern California and is expected to reach the San Francisco Bay Area in early October before continuing north toward Alaska.
Unlike ordinary waves that break along beaches, Kelvin waves involve a large movement of warm water beneath the ocean surface. As the warm water reaches the coast, it can cause higher sea levels to persist for an extended period.
El Niño Driving the Ocean Phenomenon
Scientists say the current Kelvin wave is connected to the powerful El Niño developing across the Pacific. During El Niño events, changes in trade winds allow warm water that normally remains concentrated in the western Pacific to move eastward.
When this warm water reaches the Americas, part of its movement turns northward along the Pacific coastline, eventually affecting California and other parts of the US West Coast.
Higher Sea Levels Could Increase Flooding Risk
The temporary rise caused by the Kelvin wave comes on top of long-term sea-level increases. California’s coastal sea levels have already risen by roughly 8 to 12 inches over the past century, according to scientists cited in recent reports.
Researchers warn that the additional water could become more significant when combined with high tides, storm surges and winter storms. Low-lying communities, transportation routes and coastal infrastructure could therefore face greater exposure to flooding and erosion.
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California Steps Up Coastal Preparations
California has already begun preparations for the expected El Niño impacts. Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency earlier in September, allowing state agencies to mobilize resources and prepare for potential flooding, storms and other hazards.
Scientists also emphasize that Kelvin waves are a natural phenomenon and are not themselves equivalent to a tsunami. Their effects can become more significant when they coincide with high tides and storm activity.
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